FSPro - What it is and Why use it ?

FSPro is a geospatial probabilistic model that predicts fire growth, and is designed to support long-term decision-making (more than 5 days).

FSPro calculates two-dimensional fire growth and maps the probability that fire will visit each point (cell) on the landscape of interest under the following conditions:

• during the specified time
• in the absence of suppression
• based on the current fire perimeter or ignition point 

FSPro currently has limited ability to model suppression effects.

FSPro is potentially valuable to fire managers because it can help address uncertainty in long-term fire behavior analysis where weather forecasts are unreliable. It can help support risk-based decision making when the results are combined with information about resources and assets (values to be protected).  FSPro can provide insight for strategic decision-making by helping answering questions such as the following:

• What is the probability a fire will reach a point of concern on the landscape during a specific period of time (such as within 7, 10, 14 or more days)?
• What is the probability that a fire will reach an administrative boundary during a specific period of time?
• Which fires or segments of fires will likely need suppression action?
• How large might the fire get?
• What is the expected fire size distribution?
• How soon might the fire reach critical points of concern? (beta version [in testing])