Creating artificial weather scenarios

To generate artificial weather scenarios (seasons), FSPro uses the current season's weather from the selected RAWS to start a time series analysis. In the example below, you can see that the ERCs have been above average since the middle of May.

Current Season time series

Current Season ERC Line

If the fire behavior specialist (FBS) chooses to do so, a short weather forecast can be added. In the following example, you can see how the forecast affects the ERC line.

Forecast Period Time Series

ERC Line for Forecast

FSPro uses this information in the autocorrelation process for determining artificial weather scenarios. The following image is one example of an artificial season created and used in FSPro. Hundreds or thousands of these seasons can be created, after which FSPro includes the historic wind information to simulate fire spread, and eventually, to calculate burn probability.

1 Artificial Season Time Series

Example of an Artificial Season

The following image is the same as the previous one, except the ERC percentiles have been added. From this example, we can see that the current season's ERCs have been above average, but below the 90th percentile. Note where the artificial season's ERC fall within the colored historic ERC percentiles.

ERC Shading Time Series (png)

Artificial Season with ERC Percentile Classes

The following three images show artificial seasons (14-day) that FSPro generated. You can see that the three weather scenarios are quite different. Hundreds or thousands of seasons can be created, which FSPro uses along with the historic wind information to simulate fire spread, and eventually, to calculate fire spread probability.

Low ERC 14-day Time Series