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About the ERC Time Series Graph (FSPro)

FSPro uses statistically generated ERC time series for each analysis, based on the historic ERCs for the chosen weather station. You can view the mean, maximum, and minimum generated ERCs, as well as the current year's observed ERCs to date and the historic mean ERC in the ERC Time Series Graph. This graph is different from the Fire Danger Rating graph and the National ERC graph, which do not show data from the time series analysis.

The RAWS identification number and name, range of years of data used in the analysis, and RAWS station parameters are at the top of the graph. The current year's daily ERC values (yellow), forecast (green), historic daily average (light gray), time series daily minimum (blue), time series daily maximum (red), and time series daily average (dark gray) values are displayed.

ERC Time Series Graph Example

In this example, you can see that using the past 30 years of data, average ERCs are below 10 in the winter and slowly increase until June. Average ERC increased rapidly in June until it reached the peak mean above 40 around August 1, and then trended downward to the winter lows. From the yellow line, you see that in 2007 ERC started above average until mid-May, fell rapidly, remained average through mid-June and then climbed sharply above average until the start of the analysis on July 7. The remaining lines on the graph are from forecast information or time series analysis; they do not represent observed conditions.

The green line shows that the forecast calls for increasing ERC over the next 3 days as entered by the analyst on the ERC Stream page for this analysis. When using forecasted weather, the time series uses the forecast ERC and wind speed for each of the specified number of simulations. Days following the forecast period vary for each randomly generated simulation, but they are based on the range and frequency of historic observations.

The dark gray line shows the average daily ERC for the 1024 simulations. The red line shows the maximum ERC, and the blue line shows the minimum ERC that was used in a simulation each day. None of the lines after the forecast represents an actual simulation. The variation in ERC generated through the time series, in combination with the variation in winds, makes FSPro a probabilistic model.

Each time you click ERC Time Series Graph, you generate a new graph based on a new collection of times series. When you compare graphs, you see variation in the red and blue lines, because they represent a single point; however, the dark gray average line should remain relatively stable. This demonstrates that there is variation in the individual time series, but the average is consistent. You will see no change in the light gray, yellow, or green lines.

Note: Each time you generate time series, the computer is generating a potential time series that should be indicative of what is used for the analysis. The time series graph for the actual analysis is not available, even for analyses in review or completed status.

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See Also

Preventing Duplicate Incidents

Incident View

Management Action Point Details

Creating a Management Action Point for a Shape

Viewing the Weather Forecast

Fire-Related Links

Downloading WFDSS Data to a Spreadsheet


Field Descriptions

Glossary Resources

Spatial Data Reference

Landscape Data Source Reference

Relative Risk Reference

Organization Assessment Reference

Fire Behavior Reference

About the WFDSS Decision Editors