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Testing Your Understanding of FSPro Burn Probability Contours
Using the map of the Beaverdam FSPro Probability Spread, answer the following questions:
- What is the probability that the fire will cross the administrative boundary within 30 days?
- If the fire were to cross the administrative boundary, where is that likely to happen?
- According to this FSPro analysis, what is the probability that the fire would reach the Trail Creek Cabin Group within 30 days?
- What is the highest probability that the fire would reach the trail along the east side of the lake within 30 days?
- What is the highest probability that the fire would reach Highway 14 within 30 days?
- What is the probability that the fire would burn Cabin Creek Cabin during the 30-day time period?
- According to this FSPro analysis, what is the probability that the East Entrance Area would be visited by fire within 30 days?
- On what day will the fire reach the trail just north of the Cabin Creek Cabin?
Answers:
- Less than 5% probability
- The FSPro map indicates there is a probability that the fire will cross the administrative boundary south and west of where the boundary crosses Highway 14.
- Zero percent probability
- Less than 5%
- Less than 0.2%
- Less than 20%
- Zero percent probability
- Unknown. In the current version of FSPro we are unable to determine what day the fire is likely to burn a particular point on the landscape. However, new functionality is being tested to allow this.
When interpreting FSPro analyses it is crucial that decision-makers understand that maps displaying FSPro results are NOT progression maps. The different colors do NOT represent fire shapes or days of fire spread. The different color bands represent burn probability contours. The area (cells) on the landscape within each contour have that probability of burning within the time period designated.
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