|
|
|
|
|
NTFB - What it is
WFDSS Near-Term Fire Behavior (NTFB) is a two-dimensional fire growth model that is similar to the desktop fire modeling application, FARSITE. Like all WFDSS fire behavior models, NTFB is a web-based application that uses spatial information on topography, fuels, weather, and wind to model fire growth. NTFB incorporates existing models for surface fire, crown fire, spotting, post-frontal combustion, and fire acceleration. NTFB outputs are displayed as a modeled fire progression, which allows managers to visually observe how the modeled fire reacts to heterogeneous fuel and weather conditions for the duration of the simulation.
Unlike Short-Term Fire Behavior (STFB), environmental conditions do not have to be held constant with NTFB; the model reacts to the changes in weather and wind inputs throughout the duration of the simulation. Where STFB is best used for one or two burn periods to model a 'snapshot in time' for a particular weather event of concern, NTFB is most applicable for modeling mid-term periods (generally one to three, but up to seven days) under a variable weather forecast. NTFB runs are limited to a maximum of 15 days in WFDSS.
FSPro essentially uses hundreds of NTFB runs to create a probability analysis for long-term fires. Unlike FSPro, however, NTFB is deterministic, meaning you can relate simulation results directly back to your inputs. With the same NTFB inputs, you will get the same outputs every time (with the exception of spotting).
This deterministic capability makes NTFB useful as a calibration tool when analysts need to fine-tune their inputs for other models. Using NTFB beyond a period of four or five days is not advised because the forecast data are generally not as reliable, and over- or under-prediction by the model is compounded over time. FSPro is the best tool for longer-term modeling (generally one to three weeks) because it incorporates climatalogical probabilities and reduces compounding errors by running hundreds of scenarios.
-----------
Last updated on 5/21/2019 4:59:48 PM.
In This Section |
See Also |
Reference |