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How FSPro Calculates Burn Probability

The FSPro burn probability is calculated by dividing the number of times a point burns by the total number of simulations.  After FSPro simulates the number of fires (requested by the fire behavior specialist), it essentially "stacks" the fires on top of each other to calculate the burn probability contours.

When viewing online, watch the animation to see the 10 simulated, seven-day fire perimeters stacked on top on one another, starting with the largest fire.  Remember, the small black area is our original fire perimeter and ignition file. Each time a point (cell) on the landscape has a fire burn it, another 10% probability is added (since we are using 10 fires in this example). Therefore, each time one of the points of concern is burned by a fire, its burn probability is increased by 10%. 

Stacked Fire Animation

10 Simulated Fires (stacked) with Points of Concern

In This Section

FSPro - the How

See Also

How FSPro Uses Historic Weather

FSPro uses historic wind (hourly observations)

How FSPro Simulates Fires


Field Descriptions

Glossary Resources

Spatial Data Reference

Landscape Data Source Reference

Relative Risk Reference

Organization Assessment Reference

Fire Behavior Reference

About the WFDSS Decision Editors