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Selecting a Date Filter for Generating ERC Classes (FSPro)
The start year in the drop-down will default to 10 years prior to the current year. Many stations include several decades of data. The default date range is based on the Geographic Area and should be evaluated and adjusted as needed by the FBS. The analyst should consider the weather for the available years and then choose a start year that begins at a time in history where the local climate is consistent with the current cycle. Many believe that fire seasons have become longer and more severe in the last couple of decades. Generally the more years you can capture the better but, it may not be wise to set the start year back to a cool and wet cycle during the 1940's, for example, just because that data is available. Selecting a start and end month can be trickier. In general, users will want to select a start and end month that are at least 30 days prior to and after the analysis start date respectively. In many areas selecting the entire fire season or a full year may be appropriate. In locations with bi-modal fire seasons users may want to select an end month prior to the major weather change. In the southwest, for example, users may choose to select an end month of mid-July so that the monsoonal moisture is not included in a mid-June run during a year when the moisture is projected to be 'late'. Don't overthink this input, however. FSPRO will build a simulated season based on current conditions and, during extreme years, the simulated season is unlikely to 'draw' from very many low ERC bins. It is important to capture the occasional 'rare event' (whether it is cool and wet or hot and dry) and to let the simulated season and the 1000 or so fires use those weather conditions to build a good probability analysis. After selecting a start year and a beginning and end month click the 'generate ERC class' and 'generate ERC time series' buttons. Play with different start and end times and re-generate to see the impact of the inputs. You may find that, due to the 10 year requirement, that the changes are quite minor. Evaluate the ERC values, the dead fuel moistures (live fuel moisture calculations typically require user input) and determine if they look reasonable. You can now save and move through the remaining inputs and launch the run.
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